Recently, the depreciation of the renminbi has continued to deepen. As of now, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the renminbi is 1:6.8. Some industry participants said that this will bring certain pressure on the production and operation of enterprises. The specific impacts will be analyzed from the cultural paper market, the packaging paper market, and the household paper market:
Analysis of cultural paper market
The data shows that the average price of coated paper this month was 6,700 yuan / ton, down 1.70% from the previous month and up 1.08% year-on-year. In July, the coated paper market showed a slight decline and stabilized, and the overall demand remained weak. Paper shipments were not fast. In the first ten days of July, the price of paper-based paper for paper enterprises fell by 100-200 yuan/ton, while traders allowed the digested goods to be used in the pre-inventory period, which made the profit margin larger and the actual market transactions were more chaotic. Forecast: The scale paper company intends to increase the price of coated paper in August, and the cost pressure is not alleviated. It is expected that the coated paper market will continue to move smoothly next month, and the price may rise in the next ten days.
The data shows that the average price of double-adhesive paper this month was 6,930 yuan / ton, down 3.65% from the previous month and up 10.11% year-on-year. In July, the trading atmosphere of the double-adhesive paper market was general, and the price fell first and then stabilized. The downstream demand was not good at the beginning of the month. The market wait-and-see mood was strong. At the beginning of the month, due to the unsatisfactory price increase of the big factory, the purchasing sentiment of traders and downstream terminals was not high. In order to maintain reasonable stocks, the price of double-adhesive paper has a slight decline of 200 yuan/ton. Traders are slightly panicked. In order to digest their high-priced stocks in the early period, the profit margin is large, and low-price grabbing has occurred. Forecast: The cost side pressure has not eased, but the demand has not improved. It is expected that the double-adhesive paper market will maintain its curve in August.
Packaging paper market analysis
Data show that the tax price of 250-400g white cardboard in July decreased by 4.86% from the previous month to 5259 yuan / ton, down 15.40%. In July, the white cardboard market was more cautious and the new price was difficult to implement. In the second half of the month, with the rise of wood pulp, and the three paper mills once again raised white card paper by 200 yuan/ton, the market continued to rise, but Jinguang Paper still did not raise prices, and the market rose slightly. Forecast: Bohui Paper, Chenming Paper, and Wanguo Paper have once again notified that white cardboard will be raised by 200 yuan/ton from August 1, and the market's bullish mentality will increase, and the price will decrease below 5,300 yuan/ton, and with the downstream Entering the market to cover the position, it is expected that the white cardboard market will maintain a slight upward trend in August.
In July, the mainstream of the kraft paper market was stable and partially raised. This month, the fine cattle market was slightly stable. The paper mills in North China were unstable due to environmental management, and the demand was low during the off-season. The paper mills in Huadong and Central China were normal production and the price adjustment was not large. The white kraft paper market is stable, and individual paper mills are raising 200 yuan/ton to the mainstream price. The market for recycled and mixed kraft papers was steadily raised, and the price of the paper mills was raised after production resumed. The imported kraft paper market is not volatile, the dealers offer stable prices, and the supply of garbled paper is reduced. Forecast: In August, the kraft paper market continued to stabilize and partially adjust. In the second half of the month, market demand may be slightly improved, and market trading may accelerate.
Tissue paper market analysis
Affected by the depreciation of the Renminbi, the price of pulp increased sharply this month. Some paper mills in the middle of the month actively issued price adjustment letters, and the price of individual paper mills rose by RMB 100/ton. In the latter half of the year, the number of price adjustment paper mills has been increasing, the bullish atmosphere in the market has risen, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers for picking up goods has increased. Forecast: Cost support, paper prices have an upward trend in August, demand will slowly increase.
Late prediction
Analysis, the RMB depreciation is still expected, the pressure on the arrival of wood pulp arrival costs increases, short-term merchants have no intention to sell goods, some operators are closed, and the price increase intention is still in the late stage. It is expected that the short-term pulp price will continue to rise steadily, but rises. The magnitude depends on the downstream follow-up situation. It is recommended to pay attention to the external trading situation and the implementation of downstream paper prices. In the downstream finished paper market, the paper price increased, the shipping speed increased, and the demand for non-wood pulp was supported. In August, the non-wood pulp price was on the rise.
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