Simulate performance recovery of transmission lines using @risk software
This article is provided by Palisade Inc., published by China Science Software Network
National Grid - What should we do?
National Grid - the role of the UK system operator
China's National Power Control Center manages the UK's transmission system, balancing 24/7 of the country's electricity needs.
Facilitate the UK electricity market (generators and suppliers) for a wider range of industry participants.
Optimize economic and operational performance while meeting safety requirements.
A key role that represents the country's efforts to provide safe and reliable electricity.
Transmission network flexibility
The transmission network is designed and operated to meet the safety and quality supply standards.
Provides the ability to withstand trusted failures, interference, and the necessary maintenance flexibility.
The British transmission system has never suffered a catastrophic comprehensive hacking incident.
The October 1987 storm (once in 200 years).
The £5b storm caused nationwide damage, and the power system, despite the impact, prevented a total hacked incident.
Major hacking events in the world
Notable international hacking events since 1965
UK perceived risk factors
Extreme weather events
Multiple coincidence failures of increasingly complex systems
Rapid changes in the large-scale power industry
Deliberate attack
. Network attacks
Unknown factor
Increased risk of convolution
British approach
Maintain a comprehensive set of plans and measures to deal with a wide range of unforeseen events.
Always cater to the worst credible situation - a comprehensive British hacking accident.
There is no cost-benefit assessment.
Not the most economical, worst, and most regrettable evaluation.
Multiple industry participants
Electricity transmission in the south of the UK
Challenge modeling
Capture relevant factors for all major technical, operational, and human recovery steps.
Copy the success rate, duration, and operational complications of each recovery step with probability.
Simultaneously copying the development process of electricity, separating the power supply islands and subsequent connection lines (synchronized).
The process of running multiple iterations to map the entire recovery performance.
Modular model form
Complex details related to a recovery chain developed by a "module".
Duplicate "modules" replicate complex features with specific area attributes.
All "modules" are controlled by a common user interface.
The input and output are kept together.
. Perform high resolution calculations separately.
Model indicator
. Sampling at any point in the year
Any state of existing power generation and transmission equipment
At the same time with up to 18 independent power island chains
. About 100 user-defined parameter inputs
Each model iteration draws approximately 8600 @Risk dice
Iteration of another model – satisfactory results
How many times does the model iterate?
Strip useful model output
. Area comparison (first or last connected)
Unable to supply electricity (economic impact)
What are the consequences of unstable generators?
What is the result of increasing the generator?
Generator may burn fuel
What happens if we adjust the plan?
Impact of external variables (network damage, decision making, telecommunications, training, staff level, etc.)
Example - Economic Impact Metrics
in conclusion
@Risk is more than just a financial instrument
Ideal for large complex modeling
Very efficient tool
For more information on @risk or Decisionstools software, please visit the China Science Software Network.
3 seater Fabric Sofa is a recliner sofa with 3 seats. It has two recliners at both sides. It's cover materials is fabric which is safe, environmentally friendly, comfortable cloth, made of wood frame and fine sponge, which brings people warm, comfortable and environmentally friendly family living environment.
You`ll feel very comfortable when you sit or recline on it for lunch break or after one day's work, and breathable performance of fabric sofa is good. The soft cloth is especially comfortable to touch, making people relax and feel the leisure.
3 seater fabric sofa is suitable for small space, it makes more sofa designs and colors than leather sofa, and it`s warm in winter, and breathable in summer, new fabric sofa won't give out a pungent leather smell at the same time.
3 seater fabric sofa gives a person a sense of leisure, and strong comfort, let a person have the feeling of relax when get home.
Grey Fabric Recliner Sofa,3 Seats Fabric Sofa,Fabric Recliner Sofas,I Shaped Fabric Sofa
Kaifeng Lanwei Smart Home Co., Ltd , https://www.leather-recliner.com