Imported waste paper prices will continue to rise

"Imported waste paper prices have risen too fast, almost for a price every day!" Nowadays, most waste paper import agents have such sighs.

While the American waste price trend is booming, the prices of European waste and daily waste are also rising in the same direction, and the speed and magnitude of the increase in European waste prices are no less than those of the United States and the United States.

Faced with such a strong increase in the price of imported waste paper, coupled with the potential for a 24% tariff on waste in the United States, domestic customers have responded.

Some waste paper import agents stated that their customers have already reduced their orders for waste in the United States. In particular, manufacturers with a certain amount of waste paper stocks hope to rely on existing stocks for some time to wait for developments. However, another part of the agents revealed that their customers are starting to purchase imported waste paper in large quantities, especially as some large paper mills are organizing personnel to go abroad to purchase directly. The reason why manufacturers take different measures, in addition to the difference in economic strength, mainly on the future development trend of waste paper market holds a different point of view.

The former believes that the sharp increase in imports of waste paper, especially US and waste prices, is only temporary. It will be better if this period of time is reached, because China is, after all, one of the important markets for waste paper in the United States. If the price is so high, the Chinese customer purchases The price of paper will naturally be reduced. The latter’s view is exactly the opposite. They believe that the price of imported waste paper will not only fall but will continue to rise in the short term. Now, if you do not increase your inventory, it means that you will pay later. More costly to maintain normal production.

Well, China may impose a 24% tariff on the US waste. What kind of impact will this market have? If there is no tariff of 24% in the end, the domestic market for imported waste paper will tend to stabilize, and prices will stop climbing and even lower.

We may wish to first look at the domestic demand situation: China is a large papermaking country, and at the same time there is a shortage of forest resources, so there is a large demand for waste paper that can serve as papermaking raw materials.

Regardless of quality or quantity, domestic waste paper resources cannot meet domestic papermaking needs, which has led to a large amount of imported waste paper. From the point of view of import volume, the US Waste has always been the first place, and its supply is relatively stable compared to daily waste and European waste. From the aspect of quality, the US-based waste, which is mainly composed of primary pulp, also has higher quality than European waste and daily waste.

Therefore, for a long time, many paper mills in the United States have used U.S. scrap as their main raw material for production, and their production equipment and process flow are also specific. From this perspective, the substitutability of U.S. scrap is small, together with European waste and Japan. The supply of waste is not enough, so even if China really imposes a 24% tariff on the US and waste, the price of U.S. scrap will continue to increase substantially, and most manufacturers will still have to continue purchasing U.S. scrap.

Let's look at the supply of waste paper abroad: The sources of imported waste paper in China are mainly the United States, Japan, and Europe. The collection of waste paper is directly related to the economic situation of a country. Last year, the economic downturn in the United States caused the consumption of newsprint and corrugated paper in the country to decrease, and the recovery of old corrugated paper and waste newspapers also decreased accordingly. Now that the U.S. economy has begun to recover, it is abolished. The supply of paper could not keep up for a while, which caused a shortage of supplies.

In addition, the US waste paper is exported only after it satisfies the needs of the country. In this case, even if there is no tariff factor, the US waste will still increase its price.

Look at the Japanese waste again. At present, the Japanese economy is recovering, and the paper industry as a basic industry is recovering first. At present, the domestic supply of Japanese waste paper is not enough, and the possibility of substantial increase in exports is almost impossible.

As for the European waste, affected by the large environment in which the international waste paper market is in short supply, its price is naturally rising, and even exceeding the trend of the United States and the United States. In addition, since countries such as Thailand, India, and Malaysia are all scrambling for waste paper, the international waste paper market may still be the seller’s market in the short term, and prices will continue to rise. The Chinese waste paper market will also be affected.

Therefore, the industry believes that 24% of the tariff is a cause of waste paper price fluctuations, but without this factor, according to the current macroeconomic situation and market trends, at least in the near future, imported waste paper prices will rise.