The next stage of the pharmaceutical sector may show a volatile trend, there is not much room for upwards and downwards, and individual stocks will have structural opportunities, but the premise is that there are no negative policies that exceed expectations.
On May 20, the broader market rose for the fourth consecutive day, but the pharmaceutical sector plunged, leading the industry sector of the two cities, with an overall decline of 2.25%. Many stocks with strong early gains experienced deep adjustments, Xinlitai fell to a limit, and Tonghua Dongbao, Livzon Group, China Resources Shuanghe, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Kunming Pharmaceuticals were among the top decliners.
Analysts believe that this round of decline in pharmaceutical stocks is mainly due to the new trend of Guangdong's pharmaceutical procurement policy.
On May 17, the Guangdong Provincial Department of Health and the Guangdong Provincial Medicine Procurement Platform issued the "Relevant Regulations on Drug Dealing in Guangdong Province (Draft for Comment)". This draft comment on non-essential drugs, essential drugs, drug procurement and distribution, The transaction settlement and other contents have been fully stipulated. It is planned to effectively reduce the high price of drugs through online bidding and volume-price linkage, and requires relevant units to submit amendments before May 24.
In the research report, Zhang Mingfang, an analyst of CITIC Jiantou's pharmaceutical and biological industry, said that from the content of the consultation draft, four points exceeded expectations: first, excessive protection of foreign-funded drugs; second, the five quality levels of medical insurance products, which did not include the first The domestic leader that imitates and has passed the European and American certification to reach the international level; third, medical institutions can only report the purchase variety, dosage form specifications and purchase volume on the trading platform, and can not directly choose the manufacturer, so the rules of the volume purchase at the lowest price The Guangdong model has a great lethal effect on drug prices; the fourth is the comprehensive review of the “double envelope†of essential drugs, with a price weighting of up to 90% and a quality weighting of only 10%. This is the same as the “national "The quality of essential medicines is prioritized and the prices are reasonable." Most of the general drug varieties of domestic pharmaceutical companies will be forced into the price war of basic drugs in Guangdong.
Xiang Jun, an analyst at the Industrial Securities pharmaceutical industry, also said that the bidding policy had a negative impact on the pharmaceutical industry and exceeded the market's previous expectations. Because the pharmaceutical stocks accumulated high excess returns in the early stage, and the institutional allocation ratio is also at the highest level in history, the pharmaceutical sector does not rule out the possibility of adjustment in the short term.
However, Xiang Jun believes that there is no need to be pessimistic, there may be certain variables in the implementation of subsequent policies, and that the bidding policy only has a certain impact on chemical preparation companies mainly based on competitive varieties, and other sub-industries are less affected by the policy. Therefore, If the performance growth is confirmed and there is a callback to the varieties that are less affected by the policy, it will be a bargain buying opportunity.
Under the new medical procurement policy of Guangdong Province, it is not without investment opportunities. Zhang Mingfang believes that the five quality levels of medical insurance varieties include high quality and high price, which is beneficial to leading Chinese medicine stocks. Because the exclusive price of exclusive varieties of traditional Chinese medicine is well maintained in the national market, there is no competitor when bidding.
Xiang Jun believes that in addition to Chinese medicine companies, OTC (over-the-counter drug) companies, individually priced varieties, export-oriented API companies, narcotic analgesic companies, and companies in the fields of medical devices and medical services are more affected by policies Small, it is expected to become a stage haven for policy. On the whole, the pharmaceutical sector in the next stage may show a volatile trend, and there is not much room for upwards and downwards. There will be structural opportunities for individual stocks, but the premise is that there are no negative policies that exceed expectations.
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