We’ve all grown weary of social distancing, masks, and excessive sanitization. Unfortunately, emerging data indicates that new mutations of COVID-19 are far more contagious. There's a chance that future variants could emerge which existing vaccines and antibodies may struggle to protect against as effectively as they do against the current dominant strains.
Many people have reached out to ask if they need to adjust their behavior due to these new mutations. The short answer is, not necessarily, but health professionals we've spoken with have been extra cautious—wearing N95 respirators instead of cloth masks and avoiding crowded areas even more than before.
Here’s what you should know:
- New mutations seem to be spreading faster, and some may resist current vaccines or immunity. Although we know they exist, it’s still early days for collecting comprehensive data.
- Over time, we might see additional variants, and some could be even more concerning.
- Experts remain hopeful that the pandemic will end by the end of 2021, but they warn that things might get worse before they improve.
- If these mutations become the dominant strain, as we're seeing in the UK and Ireland and as the CDC predicts in the U.S. by March, it’s reasonable to expect governments to reinstate stricter lockdowns and other measures to slow the spread.
- Germany, for instance, has mandated the use of proper respirators instead of regular masks due to these new variants.
- So if you're concerned about potential lockdowns or shortages, it’s not irrational to start preparing now.
What Could These New Variants Do?
There are three types of variants that could significantly alter the trajectory of the pandemic. These are:
- More transmissible variants, like the "UK variant" (B.1.1.7) and the "California variant" (CAL.20C), which spread faster than the original strain.
- More severe variants, potentially leading to higher mortality rates or longer illness durations. None have been confirmed yet.
- "Escape variants," which could weaken the effectiveness of vaccines, treatments, and existing immunity. Early studies suggest that the "South African variant" (501Y.V2) might resist neutralizing antibodies, though in vitro tests by vaccine makers haven’t shown the same result. A similar pattern has been observed with the "Brazilian variant" (P.1).
What Variants Have Emerged?
The key takeaway about all the new variants, including B.1.1.7 and others, is that we’ve identified multiple variants that appear to be more transmissible. This isn't a one-off occurrence.
Back in 2020, we discussed the D614G variant, which was initially thought to be a more transmissible strain but didn’t lead to significant changes. Recently, though, multiple variants carrying the N501Y spike mutation have gained traction globally. Scientists are increasingly confident these variants are indeed more transmissible. For instance, estimates for the B.1.1.7 strain in the UK suggest it’s 70% more transmissible than the original virus. Fortunately, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine seems effective against B.1.1.7, though it may be slightly less potent.
However, we don’t yet have strong evidence for more severe variants or escape variants. Labs worldwide are actively testing new variants for their ability to evade immunity.
While there’s no definitive proof yet, South African reports about the 501Y.V2 variant are concerning. A study by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases found that existing antibodies couldn’t neutralize the variant in 21 of 44 blood samples. Still, this research hasn’t been peer-reviewed, and lab findings don’t always translate to real-world scenarios.
The P.1 variant in Brazil has caused a resurgence in cases in regions presumed to have herd immunity, suggesting it may escape natural immunity. Experts expect data on vaccine resistance soon, and initial indications are similar to those for 501Y.V2, meaning vaccines should still be effective.
Below are maps to help you track the spread of these variants.
What Do These Variants Mean?
More transmissible variants make each individual case more likely to infect others. Over time, these variants spread faster than the original strain and eventually dominate outbreaks where they appear. Once this happens, the strain is harder to control even with preventive measures.
This has already happened in the UK and Ireland, where transmissible variants triggered massive spikes in cases and led to stricter restrictions. According to the CDC, these variants are expected to dominate the U.S. caseload by March, though there’s uncertainty due to limited data on their current prevalence and selective advantages. Reports from California hint that a new, more transmissible strain may already be controlling the outbreak there.
Severe variants would cause more serious illnesses, but without a selective advantage, they’re unlikely to dominate even if they emerge late in the pandemic.
Escape variants pose the greatest risk, as they could increase reinfections and reduce vaccine effectiveness, pushing back the timeline for achieving herd immunity. If escape variants are powerful enough, they could render current vaccines and convalescent immunity ineffective, necessitating new vaccines altogether. In the worst-case scenario, this could mean continuously circulating, deadly coronaviruses requiring frequent vaccine updates. While this is less likely due to the slower mutation rate of coronaviruses compared to flu viruses, it remains a theoretical possibility.
How to Prepare
If you’ve been social distancing, staying home, wearing masks, and cleaning surfaces—great job! Keep it up. If you haven’t, now’s the time to start.
In fact, you should double down on your efforts. If you’ve relaxed over the past year, tighten up again. Cloth masks should be replaced with N95 respirators. Germany now requires clinical masks, and France is considering similar rules. Austria and Bavaria mandate disposable respirators in public spaces.
If you're still shopping in person, consider alternatives like curbside pickup. Even when using curbside services or drive-thru windows, continue practicing safety measures like masking, sanitizing, and surface cleaning whenever possible.
- How to grocery shop safely during COVID-19
- How to gas up safely without catching COVID-19
- How to order takeout safely
It’s unclear if surface contamination poses a greater risk with these new variants. While surfaces have never been the main concern, experts haven’t ruled them out entirely. With more transmissible variants, surface contamination could become a bigger issue.
- How to disinfect packages during COVID-19
- Fact-checking the CDC’s updated guidance: you should still disinfect packages
- When killing coronavirus on surfaces, thyme is on your side
- Review: Force of Nature’s DIY at-home disinfectant
- Best no-touch keychain tools
Most importantly, keep the worst-case scenarios in mind as you mentally prepare, make lifestyle decisions, and plan your preparations.
While it’s still possible that the U.S. gains control of the pandemic by summer 2021, transmissible variants could make spring a tougher period than anticipated. Escape variants might extend the pandemic beyond expectations.
You may face strict lockdowns this spring. Returning to normal by year’s end isn’t guaranteed. Though we can’t predict how likely these outcomes are, they’re possible, and you shouldn’t act as if they won’t happen.
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