We've all grown weary of social distancing, masks, and excessive sanitizing. Unfortunately, new mutations of COVID-19 seem to be spreading more easily, and it's possible that future variants could bypass the immunity provided by existing vaccines or antibodies.
Many people have asked us if they should change their habits because of these mutations. The short answer is no, but the experts we consult have become more cautious themselves—wearing N95 respirators instead of cloth masks and avoiding public spaces more often.
Here’s what you should know:
- New COVID-19 mutations appear to be more contagious, and some may resist current vaccines/immunity. Although we know these mutations exist, detailed data is still being collected.
- More variants could emerge over time, and some might be even worse.
- Experts still believe the pandemic could end by the end of 2021, but anticipate things getting worse before improving.
- If these mutations begin to dominate, as we're seeing in the UK and Ireland, and the CDC predicts happening in the U.S. in March, governments may reintroduce lockdowns and stricter measures to curb the spread.
- For instance, Germany has started mandating proper respirators instead of regular masks due to these new variants.
- If you're worried about potential lockdowns or shortages, it’s not unreasonable to prepare now.
What could new variants do to change COVID-19?
There are three types of variants we should be concerned about that could alter the pandemic’s trajectory:
- More transmissible variants, like the UK variant, B.1.1.7, and the California variant, CAL.20C, which would spread faster than the original virus.
- More severe variants with higher fatality rates, longer illnesses, or more intense long-term effects. So far, none of these have surfaced.
- An “escape variant,†which could reduce vaccine and antibody therapy effectiveness against the original virus. Evidence suggests the South African variant, 501Y.V2, may resist neutralization, though vaccine manufacturers' studies have not confirmed this. A similar variant from Brazil, P.1, shows similar characteristics. Even if these variants reduce vaccine effectiveness, the vaccine is still expected to offer significant protection.
What kinds of variants have we seen?
The key takeaway regarding all new variants, including B.1.1.7, is that we’ve observed multiple more contagious ones. This isn't a single occurrence.
Last year, we discussed the D614G variant, which was initially thought to be a major contender for increased transmissibility but didn’t lead to significant changes.
In the last couple of months, several such variants, many carrying the N501Y spike mutation, have gained prevalence globally. Scientists are increasingly convinced these variants are more transmissible. Estimates for the B.1.1.7 strain from the UK suggest it’s 70% more transmissible than the original. Fortunately, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine appears effective against B.1.1.7, though a report from Cambridge’s Gupta Lab indicates it’s slightly less effective.
We haven’t yet seen strong evidence for more severe variants or escape variants. New variants are continuously tested for escape properties—essentially, how likely they are to disrupt current vaccination strategies—in both academic and industrial labs.
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So far, definitive proof hasn’t been found, though this could change quickly. Most experts consider variants with significantly higher severity less likely to emerge.
However, there are concerning reports from South Africa about the 501Y.V2 variant. One study by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases found that existing antibodies failed to neutralize the new variant in 21 out of 44 blood samples. Yet, the study hasn’t been peer-reviewed, and even if it holds up, lab results don’t always translate into real-world outcomes.
The P.1 strain is causing a surge in Brazil, suggesting it might evade natural immunity. Data on whether it evades vaccines is pending, but experts seem to agree the results will mirror those on 501Y.V2, which carries similar spike mutations and doesn’t appear to escape vaccines significantly.
Here are maps to help you monitor the new variants.
What would new variants mean?
More transmissible variants increase the likelihood of infection in your vicinity, but their long-term impact grows exponentially. They spread faster than the original virus and eventually dominate outbreaks wherever they are present.
This has already occurred in the UK and Ireland, where transmissible variants have triggered massive spikes in cases and stricter restrictions. According to the CDC, these variants are likely to dominate the U.S. caseload in March, though there’s uncertainty due to their current prevalence and selective advantages. Reports from California hint the outbreak there might already be dominated by a more transmissible strain.
More severe variants could cause worse illness, but without a selective advantage, they are unlikely to dominate the pandemic.
Escape variants pose the greatest risk, increasing reinfection likelihood and reducing vaccine efficacy, thus raising the number of infections or vaccinations needed for herd immunity.
If these escape variants are potent enough, they could nullify both recovered immunity and current vaccines, necessitating new vaccines. In the worst-case scenario, this could mean persistent circulation of deadly coronaviruses worldwide, requiring constant vaccine updates—a situation akin to seasonal flu vaccines. However, many experts consider this less likely due to coronaviruses’ lower mutation rate compared to flu viruses.
How to Prepare
If you’ve been practicing social distancing, staying home, wearing masks, and sanitizing regularly—great, keep it up! If not, now’s the time to start.
Actually, you should double down on your efforts. If you’ve relaxed over the past year, tighten up again. If you’ve been using cloth masks, switch to N95 respirators. The German government now requires “clinical masks,†and France is considering a similar policy. Both Austria and Bavaria mandate disposable respirators in public.
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If you’re still shopping in stores, consider alternatives. Many large chains now offer curbside pickup. When using curbside services or drive-throughs, take precautions like wearing masks, using hand sanitizer, and disinfecting surfaces when possible.
It’s unclear if these new variants pose a greater risk through surface contamination. While surface transmission has never been the main concern, doctors and scientists haven’t ruled it out entirely. With more transmissible variants, surface contamination might become more of a risk.
Refer back to our earlier articles on surface disinfection:
- How to disinfect packages from COVID-19
- Fact-checking the CDC’s new guidance: you should still disinfect packages [Updated]
- When killing coronavirus on surfaces, thyme is on your side
- Review: Force of Nature’s DIY at-home disinfectant
- Best no-touch keychain tool
Most importantly, keep worst-case scenarios in mind as you mentally prepare, make lifestyle decisions, and plan your preparations.
The relatively optimistic scenario where the U.S. gains control of the pandemic by summer 2021 remains the most probable. However, transmissible variants might make spring a tougher time than anticipated, and escape variants could extend the pandemic beyond expectations.
You might face a strict lockdown this spring. You might not return to normal by year-end. We can’t predict the likelihood of these events, but they are possible, and you shouldn’t act as if they won’t happen.
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